The travel giant's shares are trading at their most oversold level in months, but the question hanging over TUI is whether the booking slump has further to run. With the stock down roughly 27 percent since the start of the year at €6.49, well below its 200-day moving average of around €8, the company faces a pivotal moment when it reports second-quarter figures on May 13.
A Fleet Freed, But Fragile
Two of TUI Cruises' vessels, Mein Schiff 4 and Mein Schiff 5, managed to exit the Persian Gulf during a brief ceasefire in mid-April after being stranded for weeks in Abu Dhabi and Doha. The ships had been forced to repatriate approximately 10,000 guests in March as geopolitical tensions escalated. Both are now scheduled to resume Mediterranean itineraries — Mein Schiff 5 from Trieste on May 17 and Mein Schiff 4 from Heraklion on May 15.
Yet the respite may prove temporary. Iran has reimposed its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following continued US naval pressure on Iranian ports, and TUI Cruises has warned that further disruptions cannot be ruled out. The company is nonetheless maintaining its planned Orient season, a bet that carries considerable operational risk.
Profit Warning Reshapes the Outlook
The deeper damage, however, is to TUI's financial trajectory. The group slashed its full-year adjusted EBIT target to between €1.1 billion and €1.4 billion, abandoning its earlier forecast of 7 to 10 percent growth from last year's €1.413 billion. Revenue guidance has been suspended entirely — a rare move that underscores the uncertainty.
The culprit is a pronounced shift in summer 2026 booking patterns. Booked revenues for the season currently stand 7 percent below the prior-year level, with the eastern Mediterranean bearing the brunt. Turkey, Cyprus and Egypt are losing ground as travelers shy away from regions perceived as vulnerable to spillover from the Gulf crisis. Spain, Portugal and the Atlantic coast of North Africa are the main beneficiaries of this re-routing.
Hedging Offers Limited Shelter
TUI has taken steps to insulate itself from cost shocks. Some 83 percent of its jet fuel requirements for summer 2026 are hedged, with 62 percent covered for the winter 2026/27 season. In the cruise division, over 80 percent of energy costs for the current financial year are locked in. Bernstein analyst Richard J. Clarke noted that fuel exposure is not the issue — the problem is purely geopolitical.
That hedging cushion, however, does nothing to address the demand shortfall. The company is effectively paying less for fuel while earning less on bookings, a combination that narrows the margin for error.
Technical Signals and Analyst Views
The stock's relative strength index has fallen to 27, a level that typically indicates oversold conditions and can precede short-term bounces. But fundamental catalysts remain scarce. Bernstein Research maintained its "market perform" rating with a €9.20 price target, implying roughly 42 percent upside from current levels — though that scenario depends heavily on a de-escalation in the Gulf region.
What the May 13 Numbers Must Show
For the second quarter, TUI expects adjusted EBIT to come in between €5 million and €25 million above the prior-year figure of minus €207 million. While that would represent a meaningful improvement, the comparison is against a weak base.
The critical question for investors is whether the shift toward western Mediterranean destinations is already visible in the data. If the May 13 report reveals that the booking deficit is stabilizing, it could provide a foundation for reassessing the lowered full-year guidance. If the gap widens further, the pressure on the stock is likely to persist — and the question of whether the €1.1 billion to €1.4 billion EBIT range holds may resurface sooner rather than later.
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