*BBC reports on meeting of government and Barclays, Lloyds TSB, RBS
Robert Peston, the BBC business editor, is reporting on his blog (http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston) that the chiefs of Barclays, Lloyds TSB and RBS met with Alastair Darling (Chancellor of the Exchequer), Mervyn King (Bank of England Governor) and Adair Turner (Financial Services Authority chairman) last evening. Peston claims that "The three banks estimate that they may need around 15bn of new capital each, with 7.5bn paid up front and a further 7.5bn guaranteed by the Treasury that would be delivered if it became necessary".
*25-29% EPS dilution, pro-forma core tier 1 of 7-9%
Assuming the government were to take straight equity stakes of 7.5bn in each bank at a 30% discount to last night's closing price, the 2009 EPS dilution for Barclays, Lloyds TSB/HBOS combined and RBS would be 27%, 25% and 29% respectively, on our estimates. Pro-forma 1H08 core tier 1 ratios for the three would rise to 9.0%, 7.1% and 7.1% including the July rights issues and an additional 7.5bn of government capital.
*Credit cycle loan losses to come
Whilst the shares would then be trading at 7x for Barclays and Lloyds TSB/HBOS and 5x for RBS including this dilution, we see considerable risks to earnings - whatever rate cuts and investment we see in the short term - from rising loan losses. Substituting 1992-level loan writeoffs in our 2009 UK banking forecasts and allowing for government capital dilution would reduce 2009 EPS forecasts by 54% at Barclays, 76% at Lloyds TSB/HBOS and 91% at RBS, placing the shares on 11.4x, 22.9x and 41.9x trough earnings, respectively. We retain our preference for Barclays over Lloyds TSB/HBOS and RBS given lower credit risks and stronger balance sheet. ----------- Ich brauche einen Balkon - damit ich zum Volk sprechen kann. |