A letter from JP Morgan Securities Ltd., 124 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5AJ, dated 16 September 2005 received by Dragon on 2 October 2005, addressed to Dragon Oil Plc.


On behalf of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. ('JPMCC') of 270 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10017, we would like to advise that
JPMCC has increased its total aggregate holding in the share capital of Dragon Oil plc (to) 5.01%.

Total number of shares (% of share capital): 25,247,350 (5.01%).


For and on behalf of
JP Morgan Securities Ltd and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
Gapsun Rhee
EMEA Surveillance


This announcement has been issued through the Companies Announcement Service of The Irish Stock Exchange.

          §  

Our gas revenue projections are by nature more speculative since the gas
commercialization program is still in the early preparatory stages. Based on our
assumptions of a sustainable 100mn cf of gross gas production and an estimated off-take
price of $44/mcm (equal to what Gazprom has paid for Turkmen gas in the recent past and
24% below the new price of $58/mcm demanded by Turkmenistan several months ago), we
believe Dragon could generate an additional $30mn-$40mn in annual revenue starting
2007, when we expect the gas project to come on stream. We assume that the gas price will
increase to $50/mcm in 2010, which would increase the forecast gas revenues to $50mn-
$70mn.
Our gas price forecast is clearly conservative since it is equal to just $7.3/boe-$8.3/boe,
and we believe that as time goes by and the need for Turkmenistan to meet its delivery
pledge to Gazprom increases, the local authorities will be far more willing to pay fair
market prices to the region’s independent gas producers. In addition, the case could always
be made for the price gap with the oil price in terms of barrel of oil equivalent gradually
closing.
Although at their peak (2015) gas revenues will amount to just 14% of total oil and
gas revenues, their importance for profitability should not be underestimated as due to
low marginal costs (gas is currently produced as a by-product of oil production and is
flared) most of the incremental gas revenue would fall straight to the EBITDA line.

Although Dragon has not provided detailed information on the issue, our understanding is
that because no enhanced recovery measures have been tested in the field the reservoir
appraisers could not use a recovery ratio in excess of 25%. This means the Cheleken block
could have approximately 3bn bbls of original oil in place (OOIP), making it a world-class
reservoir by any standards.
We believe that with a water injection program ultimately in the offing, auditors could be
able to increase the recovery ratio used for estimating Dragon’s reserves to the industry
average of 30%-35%. This may significantly increase the recoverable reserves at the
Cheleken block.
We also note that a recent 3D seismic study has yet to be incorporated in the reservoir
appraisal. With little disclosure of the fields’ geology the impact of the 3D survey is
difficult to estimate; however, in the case of complicated fields (like the Cheleken block)
more detail tends to lead to positive changes in reservoir estimates.
The two fields also contain 3tcf (100bcm or 629mn boe) of “best estimate” gross
associated gas resources consisting of dissolved gas and free gas, which until now have
been ignored by the market. Recent high-level multi-party negotiations over gas shipments
from the Caspian east coast suggest the chances of Cheleken gas finding its way to the
international markets have increased significantly. We thus believe that Dragon’s gas
reserves deserve at least some valuation credit.
The Cheleken block has been under development since Soviet times (from the late 1960s
and early 1970s); however, the technological limitations of the period meant fields were
largely untapped. We estimate that only about 40mn bbls (less than 2% of estimated
original oil in place) were recovered before 1999, when Dragon Oil signed its 25-year
Production Sharing Agreement (PSA).
The reasons for the very low depletion are discussed in more detail below, but the
important point we want to emphasize here is that although its development began
roughly 35 years ago, the Cheleken field is effectively at the beginning of its life cycle.
The picture below clearly demonstrates the Cheleken block is not a mature field struggling
to maintain production and not even a rehabilitation play, but a young, world-class oil
reservoir with current reserve life just short of 80 years (on a gross basis).

Gas sales - net DGO output, bcm
2003 2004 2005F 2006F 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F
0.0  0.0   0.0  0.0   0.6   0.6   0.7   0.8   0.9   1.1   1.2   1.3   1.4  

Dragon Oil ist in den letzten Tagen einer der wenigen Ölförderer am Kaspischen Meer, der wieder zulegen konnte. Da ich keine neuen Nachrichten finden konnte, gehe ich davon aus das die Erholung des kurses charttechnischer Natur ist.
Wobei ich Dragon Oil noch immer als den aussichtsreichsten Ölförderer in dieser Region ansehe, vor allem weil ein zweites Standbein mit der Gasförderung hinzu kommt.  

Oil & Gas. Turkmenistan may open deep Caspian shelf to foreign investment; DGO, BUR may benefit
Turkmenistan's President Saparmurat Niyazov said today in an official statement that Turkmenistan may open to foreign investment the deep offshore blocks located in the Turkmen section of the Caspian Sea, as the country wants to step up its oil production in a period of record high oil prices.

While deep offshore projects will likely require very substantial capital expenditures that could well be above the financial capabilities of the two listed Turkmenistan-related plays, Dragon Oil and Burren Energy, we nonetheless expect Dragon and Burren to benefit from the upcoming auctions. The two companies' multi-year track records of successful operations in the country, together with good working relationships with the authorities and, in the case of Dragon, offshore experience, would likely make them very valuable JV partners to majors seeking to establish a foothold in the region or may enable them to bid independently for smaller offshore blocks.

We reiterate our Hold recommendations on DGO and BUR, though both companies stand to gain the most if future oil prices exceed our fairly conservative forecasts. Of the two, we particularly like Burren Energy due to its exploration upside in India and Egypt and spotless operating execution in 2004-2005.

Quelle: aton.ru
 

http://www.russia4u.de/14-2005_OG_outlook_Sep05_presentation_.pdf  

Should you buy shares in Dragon Oil?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,2769-1859030_1,00.html


DRAGON OIL has an unusual corporate structure for an Irish company listed on the Dublin and London stock exchanges. Its primary activity is the redevelopment of two oil fields in the Turkmenistan sector of the Caspian Sea. It is managed out of Dubai in the Middle East and its main shareholder is the Emirate National Oil Corporation (ENOC), which holds a 52% share.
The share is a member of the Iseq index and it has been a stellar performer on the back of a growing production profile and the surge in oil prices over the past year.
The two experts below have been selected for their skills in a number of investment areas. They, or the funds they manage, may hold shares in the companies or sectors discussed.
Job Langbroek, resource equity analyst, Davy
DRAGON OIL first became involved in Turkmenistan during the 1990s following the state’s move to independence. Enoc did not become involved in Dragon until 1999, when it bought its initial stake and provided working capital.
A large-scale refinancing was completed earlier this year, which resulted in an equity injection of $160m (€135m). This, together with growing production cash flow, provides the financial platform to develop the near 300m barrels of oil due to Dragon in the Lam and Zhadanov fields. A huge potential resource of gas, estimated at 3.5 trillion cubic feet, also remains to be exploited.
The plan is to grow total production to 40,000 barrels of oil per day by 2008. This compares with a little over 20,000 barrels of oil per day at present.
This is a redevelopment play, and increasing the level of oil production will depend on drilling enough new wells to drain the reserves in the field. New infrastructure, chiefly pipelines and oil/water/gas separation facilities, is therefore required. A well programme and new production facilities will account for the lion’s share of the $250m worth of planned investment in the next two years.
At current oil prices, Dragon’s business is hugely profitable. We are forecasting after-tax profits of about $120m for the current year and $145m for 2006. It is possible the group could, at least this year, comfortably exceed this projected performance.
As a single-asset play with a defined field life, Dragon lends itself to discounted cash-flow analysis. Our work suggests that the market is using an oil price of between $40 and $50 per barrel to value the group. Increasing production beyond a rate of 40,000 barrels of oil per day, which we believe is likely, will accelerate cash flows and further increase the value of the group.
Risks are largely centred on geography and, as an oil producer, lower oil prices will mean lower cash flows and value to shareholders. However, trading at a discount to current oil prices provides a comfort zone and the gas resource is mouth-watering.
Judgment: looks good value at the current share price
Kevin McConnell, head of research, Bloxham Stockbrokers
DRAGON OIL has been the best performing stock on the Iseq over the past year, gaining more than 220%. Yet, since oil peaked at $70 (€59) a barrel in late August, shares in the company have fallen back 23%, demonstrating the company’s high correlation to the oil price and the risky nature of oil exploration stocks.
The $160m of funding raised in May radically reduced the financial uncertainty surrounding the group’s future.
Over the next two years, Dragon intends to invest about $250m, ensuring it maximises its reserve capacity by producing 40,000 barrels of oil per day by 2008 or earlier, double its current capacity. It is estimated that the group has reserves of up to 600m barrels and a sizeable quantity of gas, which has yet to be explored and is not valued in the current share price.
Dragon’s takeover potential has been well publicised of late, with reports linking OAO Lukoil, Russia’s largest oil producer, and the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) to the company. The 52% share owned by Enoc entitles it to block any potential deal and the group has stated publicly that it has no plans to sell its stake.
The decision to switch to medium-term oil price hedging is proving highly beneficial. Not only does it reduce exposure to a volatile oil price, but it improves credit profile and provides future financial stability.
Dragon trades on a forward 2005 price/earnings multiple of 8.2 times, a 40% discount to the sector average. Even taking into account the risks associated with this single-asset company, the discount seems unwarranted and may not fully reflect the group’s growth prospects.
Overall, we believe Dragon needs to reduce its risk profile by diversifying into areas that are politically stable. Ultimately, Dragon is a speculative stock, but if the group can execute its goals and diversify its portfolio, there could be further upside for risk-seeking investors. However, any investment should be viewed in the context of an investor’s current portfolio, assessing the additional stock-specific risk that Dragon would add.
Judgment: speculative buy
Market cap: €1.21bn

Year end: December 05
EPS forecast: 25.9c
Dividend forecast: nil


The Firm at a Glance
Share price: 239c

http://grassi.siteboard.de/grassi-about29.html  

Ashgabat, 9 November 2005 (nCa) --- During the Oil and Gas Turkmenistan conference Wednesday, Khushgeldy Babayev, Turkmenistan’s point man on Caspian issues, gave a presentation that was arguably the most informative speech of the day. He gave vital details about the Caspian sector of Turkmenistan and briefly described the activities of the foreign PSA holders.

Here is the complete text of his presentation:

Cooperation Priorities in the development of the Turkmen Sector of the Caspian Sea and the Transition Zone

Presentation by Khushgeldy Babayev, Chairman of Turkmenistan President’s State Enterprise for the Caspian Sea

Turkmenistan’s growth strategy is based upon the national programme called the “Strategy of Economic, Political and Cultural Development of Turkmenistan until 2020”.

The most promising basis for implementing the National Strategy is by developing oil and gas resources of the Turkmen sector of the Caspian Sea and its adjacent coastal areas. All conference participants certainly aware of the significant contribution of hydrocarbon resources of the Caspian region to world energy balance. The Turkmen Caspian sector represents its critical component. In Soviet times Turkmen geologists conducted seismic studies totaling770000 linear kilometers of seismic profiles, including 3150 kilometers in the Middle Caspian.

During the years of Turkmenistan’s independence between 1995 and 2000, Western Geophysical, which was among those responsible for implementing the Turkmen government’s programme, used the regional seismic grid to map the entire Turkmenistan Caspian sector. The scope of this work totaled 16130 linear kilometers.

An up-to-date seismic data base was obtained, which helped supply the Turkmen government with the most accurate information on oil and gas reserves. For the first time, data on deep-occurring geological boundaries was obtained, which served as the critical technical basis for evaluation and classification of hydrocarbon potential as well as for identifying further strategies for raising foreign investment in the oil and gas exploration and production projects.

As a result of processing the earth science data, an undertaking in which Turkmen staff and Western Geco experts participated, an assessment was made of possible and future hydrocarbon resources of the Turkmenistan Caspian sector. They are estimated to be 11 billion tons of oil and 5.5 trillion cubic meters of gas. In other words, more than half of oil reserves and around 25 percent (one quarter) of Turkmenistan’s natural gas reserves are concentrated in the Turkmenistan sector of the Caspian Sea.

Within the Turkmen Caspian sector, two major oil-and-gas-bearing basins have been identified on the basis of specific geological features, namely Middle Caspian and South Caspian, divided by a transition zone.

Middle Caspian oil and Gas Basin is relatively less studied with geological and geophysical methods and has potential for oil and gas in Mesozoic and Paleozoic formations. Near the Turan Plate fringes, an area has been identified which became known as an “onlap / pinch-out trap zone”.

Based on the unique features of how oil and gas traps were formed within the studies area, the following oil and gas accumulation zones have been revealed in this region.

Interpretation of the seismic data indicates that the potential of the Middle Caspian is likely associated with carbonate reservoirs that settled on the edge of the continental shelf, rather than with structural traps of terrigenous rocks.

A number of prospects such as Charlak, Garadashlyk and Ak-Deniz are examples of possible reef structures in the Miocene cross-section within a shallow-water area of the Turan Plate.

Within the transition zone, inversion depressions and the Khazar-Osman Swell have been identified, their potential predominantly linked to Cenozoic deposits.

The Apsheron-Khazar Swell was interpreted as a boundary of continental crust of the Scythian-Turan Plate and oceanic crust of the South Caspian Basin.

The Khazar-Osman zone has been indicated to be confined to clayey diapir uplift. This area is characterized by multiple trusts associated with re-activation of more ancient normal folds and further clay diaprism. The diapir uplift and thrusts stretch from northwest toward southeast.

The geosynclinal South Caspian oil and gas Basin is characterized by a great diversity of highly potential zones, primarily in Neogena sequences. As of today, the best explored areas include: the Ogurdzhaly-Bilal Val (Swell), the Western zone of diapirs, the delta complex, the zone of clayey upwarps, the Southern zone of clayey diapirs.

In the northern areas of the Southern Caspian, seismic studies revealed the NW-SE Ogurzhaly-Bilal Swell. The 2005 recommendations include assessment of prospective hydrocarbon resources within the confined anticlinal traps of the swell.

Blocks 18, 19, 20, 21, 22 and the marginal north-eastern sections of blocks 27, 28, 29, 30, 31 are believed to be highly prospective in terms of potential identification of stratigraphic oil and gas traps in the paleodelta complex.

Seismic data from the western section of the Ogurdzhaly prospect has revealed clustered channels and a hilly pattern of the peleodelta complex in the upper-redstone cross-section.

North-eastern sections of blocks 26, 27, 28, 29, 30 and 31 tectonically lie within the zone of clayey upwarps. Here, shifting clay, scoop-shaped fractures and related bending structures are found.

The northern section of block 24 tectonically lies in the western zone of diapirs. Here, large structural uplifts are located, which are linked to tectonic disturbances and are complicated by clay dipirism under excess pressure.

South-western sections of blocks 25, 26, 27, 28 and 29 tectonically occur in the southern zone of clayey diapirs. Here, unexplored traps closed along dips and fractures are located, stretching from west-north-west to east-south-east. Clay diapirism suggests the presence of highly abnormal pressures.

In conclusion of this geological overview, I would like to point out that the consistent patterns of the location of oil and gas deposits, established on both land and sea areas of the Middle Caspian and South Caspian oil and gas basins, as well as the latest geological and geophysical data, make it possible to highly assess the above oil and gas accumulation zones in terms of the potential of large oil and gas discoveries.

In this regard, I would like to briefly dwell on thee results of oil operations of foreign oil companies that operate under the Production Sharing Agreements within four prospective blocks.

Dragon Oil
This year, Dragon Oil is to produce in this block more than 900000 tons of oil. The share of offshore production in nationwide total oil production has reached 6.4%.

In 2004, a new stationary platform, LAM-21, was commissioned. This year, two wells were successfully drilled – Dzheitun 10/110 and 10/111. Both wells were drilled using a directional drilling technique. These wells are currently under operation and are developed in three productive horizons of the redstone formation. The use of new equipment and technology by the company enabled it to obtain daily flow rates of oil from the new wells ranging between 400 tons and 600 tons.

In 2006, the company expects to drill and bring on-stream another eight new wells. Also, drilling of one appraisal well, West-A is expected at the Dzheitun field, which is hoped to deliver an increase in oil reserves in this field.

Dragon Oil is significantly expanding its prospecting operational area. This year, PetroAlliance Services Ltd. completed a 3D swidmic survey aiming to identify optimum drilling locations for potential new wells. The study area covered 652 square kilometers. Furthermore, during this work, seismic data were gathered using an ocean bottom cable drawn across the Dzheitun and Dzhygalibeg fields. The maximum design study depth was 6 kilometers below the seabed surface. Seismic data interpretation is performed by France’s CGS (Companie Generale de Geophysique). The scope of investments Dragon Oil has earmarked for the contractual acreage in 2006 is estimated at US $ 280 million.

In 2010, Dragon Oil hopes to bring up the annual production rate to 2.5 million tons of oil.

Petronas
Petronas has drilled seven wells in its offshore prospect; all of them have yielded commercial inflows of oil, gas and condensate. Daily oil flow rates in the wells vary from 600 tons to 2000 tons.

As my esteemed colleagues know, Petronas has conducted a set of geological and geophysical studies, including 2D and 3D seismic surveys, as well as drilling exploration and appraisal wells. The results of these operations have helped significantly expand the field productivity range in terms of both the surface area and downhole operations.

In order to ascertain reserve calculations for Block 1provided by Petronas, a contract was made with Gafney Klein for an expert review of the identified hydrocarbon reserves.

During this year, Petronas put in significant efforts to prepare the contract area for pilot commercial operation of the oil and gas fields. A Mobile Offshore Production Unit (MOPU) and an Offshore Oil Storage facility were constructed. At present, they have been delivered to the Caspian Sea and are being installed at the production site.

This year, the company began construction of an onshore gas terminal at Gyyanly and sections of a self-mounted production platform in Malaysia.

Petronas expects to launch a full-scale development of the oil/gas/condensate fields in its block in late 2007.

Maersk Oil
A turning point in the history of development of Turkmenistan’s oil and gas resources came with the signing of a Production Sharing Agreement on the unified block 11-12. The critical significance of this event is in the fact that for the first time ever, oil and gas prospecting operations were taken to the Middle Caspian oil and gas basin, an area of huge oil and gas potential associated with three prospective oil and gas bearing complexes: Paleozoic, Mesozoic and Cenozoic. The Cenozoic complex is confined to southern sections of the offshore blocks 11-12 at the junction with the South Caspian mega-depression and is also characterized by favourable conditions for potential discoveries of oil and gas deposits of lithologo-stratigraphic type.

Project operator here is the Danish company Maersk Oil. Today, 2D seismic studies have been completed, which yielded a total of 5070 linear kilometers of seismic profiles. As a result of seismic data interpretation, large oil and gas traps were revealed, and the Garadashlyk prospect was identified as the top priority for construction of a prospecting well. The well design depth is 3900 meters. Sea depths range between 20 meters and 80 meters. Drilling of the well is ongoing as we speak.

Wintershall
Wintershall signed an agreement with the Turkmenistan ministry of oil and gas industry and mineral resources for study of northern blocks within the Turkmenistan sector of the Caspian Sea in order to determine the most promising potential oil and gas accumulation zones. As a next step, the company hopes to sign a production sharing agreement for one of the offshore blocks.


Licensing of the offshore projects on the basis of direct negotiations is continuing. At present, we are negotiating production sharing agreements with several companies for six blocks in the Turkmen Caspian sector.

By 2020, the share of investments in offshore project development is to reach 40% of total investments in the oil and gas sector, which have been planned at US $ 63 billion.

Dear Colleagues! A number of significant steps have been taken in the country in order to sustain national environmental safety, which is one of the topmost priorities of the national policy. “While engaging in economic activity, using natural resources, we must always remember that environmental systems are highly vulnerable, and without a caring attitude toward them, future generations would have to make much greater efforts and spend more resources for their production.” These words by Turkmenistan’s President Saparmurat Niyazov Turkmenbashy the Great express the gist of Turkmenistan’s environmental practices, which combine aspects and factors that originate from both national interests and international obligations of our country. Turkmenistan remains true to the principles of active participation in environmental protection and preservation programmes, preventing ecological anomalies on both the national global levels. The country has developed and implemented a number of regulations and laws, such as “On Environmental Protection”, “On Subsoil”, “On Hydrocarbon Resources”, and the National Caspian Sea Oil Spill Prevention and Response Plan.

Turkmenistan has enthusiastically cooperated with Caspian littoral nations under the jointly-developed Framework Convention for protection of the offshore environment of the Caspian Sea. Adopting this crucial environmental protection document was a real step that responded to the letter and spirit of international approaches to addressing the paramount environmental challenges faced by the Caspian., Turkmenistan was one of the first Caspian states to ratify this document.

In step with the concept of sustainable development and principles of international cooperation, the further strategy of our government is based on attracting foreign companies that use state-of-the-art, environmentally safe technology that meets international standards.

I would like to conclude by saying that further details on the offshore blocks to be licensed in the Turkmenistan sector of the Caspian Sea are available from the ministry of oil and gas and mineral resources, which is Turkmenistan’s competent authority in negotiations with foreign investors under production sharing agreements. The ministry will provide you with all the necessary legislation and technical data. The technical data is presented as data packages with varying sets of contents of geological, geophysical and technical information.

Thank you and I wish you all the best.

http://www.newscentralasia.com/modules.php?name=News&file=ar...  

Kazakhstan-China oil pipeline completed

Eric Watkins
Senior Correspondent

LOS ANGELES, Nov 15 -- China National Petroleum Corp. and Kazakhstan's National Petroleum & Natural Gas Co. have completed construction of the 1,000-km Atasu-Alashankou oil pipeline.

The new line, which extends from Atasu in Kazakhstan's central Karaganda region through the Alashankou rail crossing with China's western province of Xinjiang, is designed to carry 140 million bbl/year of crude from Kazakhstan to China starting Jan. 1, 2006.

In October, Kazakh Prime Minister Danial Akhmetov said the Atasu-Alashankou pipeline also could be used by Russian oil companies.

Russian state-owned oil company Rosneft, which currently transports oil to China by rail, has applied for permission to transport 1.2 million tonnes of oil via the Kazakhstan-China pipeline in 2006. OAO Lukoil also is said to have shown interest in the pipeline.

Meanwhile, Chinese state media said the Altaw Pass, where the final link in the pipeline was completed, is expected to become a hub for railway, road, and pipeline networks for the remote region in China's northwest.

http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/...NART&C=Trasp&ARTICLE_ID=241570&p=7  

Work on TAP gas pipeline starts next year


ASHGABAT, Nov 10: The construction of a proposed gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Pakistan across Afghanistan will start next year, despite continuing unrest in the region, an Afghan minister said on Thursday.

“January, in my opinion, will see the last meeting to found a consortium for the TAP (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan pipeline),” Afghan Minister for Mines and Industries Mir Mohammad Sadiq told Reuters in an interview.

Mr Sadiq said work would then start on a project that he estimated would cost $3.6 billion. He gave no estimate for a completion date for the pipeline or details on financing plans or likely consortium members.

The long-delayed project envisages a pipeline running 1,600 km and providing Turkmenistan with a new outlet for its gas, Afghanistan with transit revenue and Pakistan with much-needed energy.

Afghan President Khamid Karzai said last month that the project was “very real and feasible”.

Mr Sadiq said the planned pipeline would have enough gas supplies to run for 20 years at a rate of 30 billion cubic metres of gas annually. The line could be extended to India.

While concerns remain over security in Afghanistan, questions have also been asked about the size of Turkmenistan’s Daulatabad gas field slated to feed the pipeline with the fuel. The Asian Development Bank has said reserves information from Turkmenistan shows a lower-than-expected gas deliverability there.

“Turkmenistan’s reserves in Daulatabad are more than needed for Pakistan and India,” Mr Sadiq said. “The volume ... is enough for 20 years.”

Turkmenistan, which currently ships the bulk of its gas exports to Ukraine via a pipeline controlled by Russian gas giant Gazprom, says Daulatabad holds 1.7 trillion cubic metres of gas which makes it the world’s fourth largest.

It is still unclear who will form the pipeline consortium. Mr Sadiq said the ADB was providing results of Daulatabad’s international audit to all those interested in the project.—Reuters

http://www.dawn.com/2005/11/11/ebr9.htm  

dürfte durch die erheblichen Gasreserven ein großer Profiteur dieses Vertrages sein sein.

Turkmenistan, China to Sign Gas Deal

Central Asia's Turkmenistan will sign a major agreement next year to sell natural gas to China and jointly develop Turkmen gas fields, President Saparmurat Niyazov said Wednesday.
China is increasingly looking abroad to secure reliable oil and gas supplies for its booming economy. Turkmenistan, a largely desert nation, has huge natural gas reserves and is the second-largest gas producer in the former Soviet Union after Russia.
Niyazov said the deal, expected to be signed during his visit to China early next year, would involve building a gas pipeline to China from eastern Turkmenistan, where the fields planned for joint extraction are located.
The pipeline will be able to carry 30 billion cubic meters (1 trillion cubic feet) of natural gas a year, Niyazov told a meeting of transport officials from former Soviet republics in the capital Ashgabat.
The financial terms of the agreement were not disclosed.
In July, Turkmenistan and China signed an agreement on oil and gas cooperation and China extended a $24 million low-interest loan to Turkmenistan for the development of its oil and gas industry.
Wednesday's announcement comes days after Niyazov warned Russia and Ukraine that Turkmenistan can do without their markets if they do not agree to pay more for gas supplies. The country, citing increased production costs and higher costs of gas extraction equipment, is seeking to boost its prices for natural gas exports by about 35 percent.
Ukraine relies on Turkmenistan for about 45 percent of its natural gas needs, and was planning to buy about 39 billion cubic meters in 2006. Russia was expected to buy about 7 billion cubic meters and Iran 8 billion.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/.../AR2005112300381.html  

Turkmenistan offers to export gas to Germany
          §MENAFN - 25/11/2005

(MENAFN) Turkmenistan's president told German businessmen that his country could export natural gas to Germany but only if Russia approved, AP reported.

According to Turkmen television the president told the visiting delegation that Turkmenistan could export up to 30 billion cubic meters (1,059 billion cubic feet) of gas to Western Europe via the "Central Asia-Center" pipeline going from Turkmenistan to Russia.

Currently, most of Germany's -- and Europe's -- gas imports go through pipelines traversing Poland and Belarus or Ukraine, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Russia supplies a third of Germany's gas and a quarter of Europe's.

http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?StoryId=115631  

hochgestuft. Seit der Herabstufung im September hatte Dragon Oil eine schlechtere Performance im Vergleich zu anderen russischen Ölförderen.

Dragon Oil hat sehr gute Wachstumsaussichten, vor allem im Gassektor. Als einzigstes Unternehmen verfügt es über enorme Gasreserven, bei den anderen Ölförderen am Kaspischen Meer sind es nur geringe Gasvorkommen, die in den Ölreserven mit eingerechnet sind. Meistens fällt es als "Abfallprodukt" bei der Ölförderung an, das in der Vergangenheit abgefackelt wurde und in der jüngsten Zeit ebenfals verkauft wird.
Dragon Oil investiert einige 100 mio in die Erschliessung der Gasfelder, die sie aber aus dem laufenden Gewinn finanzieren wollen.

In 2006 will die Ukraine 39 millarden m³, Russland 7 millarden m³ und der Iran 8 millarden m³ abnehmen.
Turkmenistan will über Russland nach Westeuropa Gas liefern, hat ein Abkommen mit China abgeschlossen incl. dem Bau einer Gaspipeline, ab 2006 wird die Gaspipeline nach Pakistan und Inden gebaut.


Aton zum Ölpreis und Dragon Oil:

We have upgraded our long-term oil price forecast from $35/bbl Brent to $40/bbl Brent to bring it in line with the global consensus, which now appears to include authoritative industry organizations (IEA), oil super-majors (BP) and leading global commodity research teams. $40/bbl Brent is also in line with the trailing price over the last three years. Our long-term price forecasts for export gas prices as well as export and domestic refined product prices were also revised higher. Our near-term forecasts – $55/bbl Brent in 2005 and $50/bbl in 2006 – were left intact. Following these changes, we have revised higher the target prices for most of the companies we cover.

Dragon Oil – Upgraded to Buy from Hold. The stock has underperformed Russian oils and Burren Energy since our downgrade in September, but strong leverage to oil prices and a solid production growth outlook make the stock seem attractive at current levels. At an ’06F EBITDA multiple of 4X and P/E of 7, the stock looks very attractively priced; our DCF-based target of $3.8 suggests 40% upside.  

in Takt. Durch die Wachstumsaussichten, weiterhin positiven News, Heraufstufung von Aton auf buy und einigen anderen Analysten auf ein spekulatives buy, wird in 2006 der Aufwärtstrend weitergehen.  

In 2006, the Russian gas giant “GasProm” will increase gas purchases in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan up to almost 26 billion cubic/metres. The company’s representatives say that today Central Asian gas appears to be an important element in forming a widespread resource base of “GasProm”, meeting the requirements of the domestic market of Russia, the CIS countries and far abroad. Today the Russians jointly with the Central Asian states are realizing a program on the restoration and expansion of the gas-transport system Central Asia –Centre. Specialists think that the realization of the project will allow “GasProm” to increase volumes of long-term natural gas deliveries from the Central-Asian region.
02.12.2005 11:43

http://www.caspionet.kz/index.cfm?id=6385  

(#13) auf 6,3 % !


Dragon Oil Plc ('Dragon' or the 'Company')

Holding in Company

A letter from JP Morgan Securities Ltd., 125 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5AJ,
dated 29th November 2005 received by Dragon on 11th December 2005, addressed to
Dragon Oil Plc.

On behalf of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. ('JPMCC') of 270 Park Avenue, New York, NY
10017, we would like to advise that JPMCC has increased its total aggregate
holding in the share capital of Dragon Oil plc (to) 6.30%.

Total number of shares (% of share capital): 32,098,512 (6.30%).

For and on behalf of

JP Morgan Securities Ltd and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.  

Dragon Oil Plc ("Dragon" or the "Company")

Holding in Company

A letter from Julius Baer Investment Management LLC of 330 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10017, dated 19th December 2005 received by Dragon on 20th December 2005, addressed to Dragon Oil Plc.

Julius Baer Investment Management LLC advises that it has increased its holding in the issued share capital of Dragon Oil plc to 6.79%.

Total number of shares : 34,603,218

For and on behalf of

Julius Baer Investment Management LLC

Donald Delano

Chief Compliance Officer

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/LSECWS/...px?id=1129198&source=RNS  

Dragon Oil Pleased with Results at LAM 10 Platform    
          §Dragon Oil      Wednesday, December 28, 2005


Dragon reports that well LAM 10/112 drilled from the refurbished LAM 10 platform in the Cheleken Contract Area, offshore Turkmenistan, has tested oil from Zones 4, 5 and 6 at a combined rate of 2,950 barrels of oil per day.

Well LAM10/112 was spudded on October 14, 2005 and drilled to a total depth of 3,629 meters in reservoir Zone 7. The well was successfully completed using a dual completion which enables two reservoir intervals, at different reservoir pressures, to be produced simultaneously.

          §Related Products

Drilling Technology for the Man on the Rig

Drill String Design Handbook
Reservoir Zones 5 (lower part) and 6 were produced through the lower completion string and tested at a rate of 2,087 bopd. The upper part of reservoir Zone 5 and Zone 4 was produced through the upper completion string and tested at a rate of 863 bopd. Both intervals will be produced together.

The Iran Khazar jackup has been skidded to commence drilling the fourth well from the LAM 10 platform, well LAM 10/113. This well is planned to be drilled to a total depth of around 3,700 meters.

Hussain M. Sultan, Chairman of Dragon commented: "We are pleased with the result of well LAM 10/112 which was drilled using dual completion technology."

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=28118  

Ashgabat, 29 December 2005 (nCa) --- Turkmenistan agreed Thursday to sell 30 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas to Russian Gazprom in 2006. The gas would be sold at US $ 65 per 1000 cubic meters -- five dollars more than the initial asking price of Turkmenistan.

Of the committed volumes, 15 bcm would be pumped during the first quarter of 2006.

The agreement was signed during a meeting between President Niyazov and Alexi Miller, chairman of Gazprom.

A press release by the foreign office of Turkmenistan says that both sides hailed the contract as an important document for not only successful partnership in the gas sphere between the two countries but also as a whole for the Turkmen-Russian relations.

According to initial reports Russia was planning to buy 7 bcm from Turkmenistan in 2006. The sudden jump in volumes may suggest that, unless the demand has risen correspondingly from the European buyers, Gazprom could be planning to resell the additional volumes to Ukraine at a price that has still not been agreed to between Russia and Ukraine.

There is, as yet, no news about the pending gas purchase agreement between Ukraine and Turkmenistan for 2006.



Turkmenistan plans to raise the price for its gas deliveries  
to Gazprom (Rusukrenergo) to $85 per 1,000 cubic meters in 2H06 from the $65 level contracted for 1H06. That might further complicate realization of the recently signed agreement between Russia and Ukraine, under which Rosukrenergo is obliged to supply Ukraine with gas at $95 per 1,000 cubic meters at the Russian-Ukrainian border.

 

Sollte sich der Ölpreis weiterhin im Bereich von 70$ bewegen, werden neue Jahreshochs folgen. Solange keine Einigung mit dem Iran in Sicht ist und der Winter anhält, dürfte es keine Korrektur beim Ölpreis geben und somit die Aufwärtsbewegeung bei Dragon Oil weiter gehen. Mit einer erneuten Korrektur bei Dragon Oil rechne im Februar. Der Anstehende Frühling dürfte dann auch für einen fallenden Ölpreis sorgen.


http://www.newscentralasia.com/

A visiting Japanese delegation has expressed serious interest in joint hydrocarbon projects and modernization of Seyidi refinery, the second largest refining facility of Turkmenistan. The delegation, led by Norioshi Yabe (phonetically spelled) of Itochu, visited oil and gas installations in Turkmenistan and expressed firm desire to participate in a number of hydrocarbon projects including modernization and upgrading of Seyidi refinery near the border of Uzbekistan. The Itochu rep said that his company would soon present concrete proposals for mutually beneficial cooperation. In a parallel development, Minoru Sakai, director of information centre for exploration of hydrocarbon resources, visited Ashgabat and held meetings with a number of top officials. He told that in February 2006 an international seminar would be held in Japan where major Japanese companies, organizations and industry leaders would get together to discuss deep, long-term hydrocarbon cooperation with Turkmenistan.

A powerful Chinese delegation, led by Chzhan Gobao (phonetically spelled), vice chairman of China state committee, would begin preliminary round of talks tomorrow in Ashgabat for construction of a gas pipeline to China. Other important projects are also on the agenda.
The Chinese delegation is visiting Ashgabat in the run up to Niyazov’s landmark visit to China in spring this year. It is expected that Gobao and his team would thrash out the details with their Turkmen counterparts for a draft agreement to lay a natural gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to China. The pipeline is likely to have a designed capacity of 30 billion cubic meters. Turkmenistan is attaching great importance to Gobao visit as President Niyazov held yesterday a special brainstorming session with the oil and gas officials to give finalise the Turkmen stance in negotiations with the Chinese delegation. China has offered broad and deep hydrocarbon cooperation to Turkmenistan. The package, as early reports suggest, could include establishment and modernization of oil and gas exploration and extraction facilities and supply of related technology and equipment. In addition to the proposed pipeline project, China has offered to set up a silk fabric production facility and a velvet weaving plant in Turkmenistan. China is active in the Turkmen communications, transportation and construction sectors also. During the recent gas spate between Ukraine and Russia, Turkmenistan maintained a consistently neutral stance and adhered to its commitments, demonstrating that Turkmenistan can be relied upon as a long-term, stable energy provider.  

tons of oil in Turkmenistan in 2005

Foreign partners of the Turkmen government produced over 2,3 million tons of oil in 2005, up 30% year-on-year, the state news agency of Turkmenistan reported referring to data released by the Ministry of oil and gas industry and mineral resources of Turkmenistan. Oil production in Turkmenistan is currently conducted by two foreign PSA operators: British-Arab Dragon Oil, working in the Cheleken field, and Britain's Burren Energy, which extracts oil at the Nebitdag block. The Khazar consortium, which includes Mitro International, a foreign contractor of the operator Turkmenneft state consortium, produces oil onshore also on PSA terms.
Dragon Oil produced over 940,000 tons of oil in 2005 with average daily output exceeding 2700 tons of oil. In 2006, the company plans to drill and put into operation 8 new wells. Dragon Oil plans to invest some US $ 280 mln in development of the contracted block and raise oil production to 2,5 mln tons by 2010. Britain’s Burren Energy produced some 950 thousand tons of oil in 2005 with average daily output amounting to 2600 tons of oil. Under the PSA the Nebitdag block includes five oil fields. Only one of them, Burun field, is being currently developed. As of now, 20 new well have been drilled at this field. Petronas (Malaysia) and Maersk Oil (Denmark) are also producing oil offshore on PSA terms in the Turkmen sector of the Caspian Sea. In 2006, Petronas is expected to begin production of early oil under the Block-1 project. Maersk completed the program of seismic testing at the contracted territory last year. According to seismic data interpretation, large oil and gas deposits were identified. A prospecting well will be drilled at the promising structure Garadashlyk which was singled out as priority field. Preparations for drilling the first well at the combined 11th and 12th offshore blocks in the territory of the middle-Caspian oil and gas bearing basin is under way. According to the ministry, over US $ 1,2 billion have been invested in implementation of production sharing agreements in Turkmenistan since 1996. Large-scale plans are expected to be fulfilled by PSA contractors in 2006. Investments will presumably total some US $ 1 billion and there are plans to increase hydrocarbon production to 3 mln tons.

http://grassi.siteboard.de/viewtopic.php?t=21  

LONDON (AFX) - Dragon Oil PLC said it has repaid, early and in full, the outstanding loan, interest and expenses relating to its borrowing form the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. (EBRD)

The loan facility of up to 60 mln usd was signed in November 2000 and required full repayment by Feb 5, 2008. During the course of the loan facility, Dragon said it availed of a total of 38.3 mln usd and has repaid, early and in full, the outstanding principal amount of 27.6 mln usd, interest of 1.023 mln and minor expenses of 13,721.

Dragon said its increased cash balances have enabled it to conclude that it is in its best interests to repay the EBRD loan and thereby free up group assets against which the loan was secured.

Dragon's Chairman Hussain M. Sultan said: "Now that Dragon has achieved a healthy cash position, the time is opportune for us to repay, not just early, but the entirety of the EBRD loan... This is a positive step forward in our plans to develop the Cheleken Contract Area and grow our production." newsdesk@afxnews.com tc

http://www.iii.co.uk/news/...5546280&subject=companies&action=article  

Dragon Oil ein neues ATH.
Ich hab mit einer stärkeren Korrektur im Februar gerechnet, soll mir aber recht sein, dass es wieder weiter geht zu neuen ATH.  

LONDON (AFX) - Dragon Oil PLC said production started from its LAM 10/113 well on the refurbished LAM 10 platform in the Cheleken Contract Area, offshore Turkmenistan.

The well tested oil from Zones 3, 4, 5 and 6 at a combined rate of 3,453 barrels of oil per day.

"This is the first time that oil has been found in the Zone 3 reservoirs in the LAM 10 sector of the field," the company said.

The rig has been moved to the fifth well from the LAM 10 platform: LAM 10/114. newsdesk@afxnews.com jc

http://www.iii.co.uk/news/...5578180&subject=companies&action=article  

.. jau fein .. im  freien fall nach unten ....  

13.08.2007
New well at LAM field flows at 2.9mbpd

Dragon Oil reported another operational success on Friday, with its recently finished LAM well 121 reportedly flowing at 2,900bpd from multiple producing horizons. The new producing well should further increase the company's recently reported peak output of 34mbpd, improving its chances to exceed our annual average production forecast of 30.6mbpd.

The announcement confirms the geological quality of the company's assets and our view of Dragon Oil as one of the most financially and operationally sound small-cap stories in the FSU.

Our recommendation for Dragon Oil is Buy, with end-2007 fair value of $6.64.