Graphite One’s Alaska-Ohio Plan Faces a Dual Hurdle: Permits and Chinese Competition

The US push to build a domestic battery supply chain just hit a regulatory pothole. Graphite One, the developer behind what is billed as America’s largest known natural graphite deposit, must now navigate a post-tariff landscape after the US International Trade Commission (ITC) delivered its final verdict on April 26. The ruling effectively kills the proposed punitive duties of over 200 percent on Chinese graphite for battery anodes, leaving the company to compete without a protective wall.

China controls more than 95 percent of global graphite processing, and the ITC concluded that those imports do not harm domestic producers. For Graphite One, the decision reshapes the competitive math. The stock has fallen roughly 26 percent since the start of the year, though it has clawed back nearly 25 percent over the past month to close at $0.86 on Friday. That recovery has lifted the shares above the 50-day moving average of $0.81, but they remain well below the 52-week high of $1.52.

Financing in Place, but the Clock Is Ticking

Without tariff protection, the company’s viability hinges on execution. The US Export-Import Bank (EXIM) has issued a preliminary commitment for up to $2.07 billion, covering roughly 70 percent of total project costs. That funding would support a $670 million mine in Alaska and a $1.4 billion anode processing plant in Ohio, with a target capacity of 100,000 tonnes of anode material per year. The remaining 30 percent is being negotiated with five North American investment banks.

The permitting timeline adds pressure. Graphite One must secure all federal approvals by September 29, 2026, to remain in the FAST-41 program for critical minerals. Missing that deadline would jeopardize the 2027 construction start. The public comment period for a key environmental review closed on April 15, and the feedback has been hostile. Tribal representatives have excluded the company from meetings, three local institutions passed a joint resolution opposing the project, and regulators are now considering a more comprehensive environmental assessment that could blow the FAST-41 schedule.

Rare Earths as a Strategic Wild Card

A potential offset lies in the Graphite Creek deposit itself. Independent tests have confirmed significant concentrations of five heavy magnetic rare earths — including neodymium, praseodymium, and dysprosium — without toxic byproducts such as uranium or thorium. A US national laboratory is scheduled to begin testing extraction methods in 2026. If economic recovery is proven, Graphite One could mine rare earths alongside graphite, improving project economics regardless of the tariff regime.

The US government has already classified the Alaska graphite and rare earths as essential to national security under the Defense Production Act, which eases access to federal support. That designation gives management a strong argument in ongoing negotiations with investors and regulators.

Revenue Timeline and Market Reality

The Ohio plant is expected to generate first revenues by early 2028, while the Alaska mine would not begin operations until 2030 at the earliest. In the interim, the company must secure final financing, navigate permitting, and manage community opposition — all while competing against a Chinese industry that now faces no US tariff barrier. The stock’s 30-day rally suggests improving sentiment, but the fundamental path forward remains narrow.

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Graphite One Stock: New Analysis - 26 April

Fresh Graphite One information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.

Read our updated Graphite One analysis...

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Graphite One Stock: New Analysis - 26 April

Fresh Graphite One information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.

Read our updated Graphite One analysis...