Aixtron purpose of this thread

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10.01.20 16:19 #1 Aixtron purpose of this thread

For the time being this forum is closed to keep users that do not contribute essential news around the stock, the market opportunity or messages related to it out.

Please be friendly to eachother and keep political discussions out.

Thank you
 laugthingcool baggo-mh

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1318 Postings ausgeblendet.
06.07.22 18:16 #1320 SiC Growth
No question the growth of SiC is taking place fast.

In #1089 and 1090, I estimated ~500 G5 equivalent tools needed by 2025 to satisfy 20m EV.  

A latest industry projection confirmed the 20.6m EV number by 2025.

One 6" SiC wafer provides chips for 3-8 EV's depending on what models and who is talking.  

In #1094, Baggo posted what Aixtron said:
"Annual volume 30-50 systems/year for the next 5 years"

So the numbers roughly match (Keep in mind that there are already installed SiC epi tools).
08.07.22 12:07 #1323 Correction is an opportunity: Up to BUY from.

Correction is an opportunity: Up to BUY from HOLD

Correction with the semi equipment market. 5 weeks ago, Aixtron shares surpassed the AlsterResearch price target or EUR 27, resulting in a valuation that fully reflected the quality of the business and the growth perspectives at the time, triggering our downgrade to HOLD. Relative valuation showed a significant premium to a broad semiconductor equipment peer group, and only a small discount to ASML (11% on EV/EBITDA 23E). Since then, shares of Aixtron have experienced a significant rerating by 23%, correcting even more sharply than the peer group and widening the discount to ASML to 16%.

On its own cycle. The market correction is driven by fears of a cyclical downturn of semiconductor end markets, which tends to hit the equipment manufacturers hardest. However, this is not doing Aixtron justice, as it is increasingly serving uncorrelated end markets with strong structural growth drivers, like the SiC power market, which is driven by electric vehicles and charging stations, and the potentially huge and only now emerging market for Micro LEDs. Order activity thus looks set to remain buoyant into H2.

Quality not in doubt. Over time, Aixtron has steadily gained market share and now has a near-monopoly position in the MOCVD market for the deposition of compound semiconductors. This allows the company to widen the gap to the competition with the help of a generous R&D budget. Pricing power is thus likely to improve further. At the same time, the weaker EUR versus the USD is supportive of the gross margin and might provide upside to the guidance of a gross margin of 41% and EBIT margin of 21-23% for 22E.

Upgrade to BUY, unchanged PT EUR 27. Considering all of the above, it seems like a good opportunity to get exposure to a high-quality business largely decoupled from the overall business cycle. We upgrade Aixtron from HOLD to BUY with unchanged price target of EUR 27.00.

laugthingcool baggo-mh

10.07.22 10:31 #1324 AIXTRON: Short-Engagement von Canada Pen.

AIXTRON: Short-Engagement von Canada Pension Plan Investment Board zurückgefahren - Aktiennews

reduced form 1,97% to 1,84%

13.07.22 12:56 #1325 DWS
Nachricht: Stimmrechtsanteile: AIXTRON SE: Release according to Article 40, Section 1 of the WpHG [the German Securities Trading Act] with the objective of Europe-wide distribution (10229554) - 11.07.22 - News
erhöht Anteile auf 5,16 %.
13.07.22 22:20 #1326 Infineon Started its Malaysia SiC and GaN P.

Groundbreaking for Infineon's Malaysian plant
The total investment is about 14.4 billion

According to foreign media reports, on July 7, Infineon invested more than 2 billion euros (about 14.4 billion yuan in total) to officially lay the foundation stone for the third plant built in Kulim, Malaysia. The construction is expected to be completed in the third quarter of 2024, creating About 900 jobs.

Infineon said that the plant mainly involves key processes such as epitaxy and wafer cutting , and will significantly expand the production capacity of wide-bandgap (silicon carbide and gallium nitride) semiconductors. The first batch of wafers is planned to be produced in the second half of 2024 . goods.
Moreover, when its Kulim 3 plant is fully equipped, it will generate additional annual revenue of 2 billion euros for Infineon from silicon carbide and gallium nitride products.

In the next few years, Infineon's 6"/8" silicon production line in Villach, Austria will also be retrofitted for the production of SiC and GaN, serving as an innovation base and global competence center for their wide bandgap technology, aiming for this century $1 billion in revenue from SiC-based power semiconductors in the medium term .

14.07.22 16:27 #1327 Infineon Malaysia
13 July 2022

Infineon lays foundation of third wafer fab module in Kulim, Malaysia  
14.07.22 17:22 #1328 2B Investment from Infineon
Infineon is on schedule to invest 2B Eur in Malaysia focusing on the front-end epi and wafer cutting for SiC and GaN power semi.  Assuming ~30% of the investment goes to MOCVD tools, it can be a 600M opportunity for Aixtron.  If Aixtron wins the business which is highly likely, orders should start in mid 2023  to meet Infineon's H2/2024 production schedule.    
19.07.22 01:03 #1329 Why down 5% today, my 2 cents
There was a downward Q2 earnings revision by certain analysts from 94.3m to 93m today after the close.   In addition, the new Q3 earning estimates is now 131m, short of the 140m projected in a previous post (#1299).  Furthermore, the 2022 rev estimate is now 489m which is short of the anticipated 500m considering the benefit of currency tailwind.   Pessimism is being propagated for whatever the reason or source.  Traders who got the information ahead were front running.  
19.07.22 03:44 #1330 Kingsoon Expands
Kingsoon Optoelectronics plans A-share IPO and will build the country's largest quaternary LED production base

"with an estimated total investment of 800 million yuan"

Kingsoon is a customer of Aixtron:  
19.07.22 10:10 #1331 Share price moves

Hi all,

I think the share price moves are closely linked to Semi / Semicap and Tech sectors at the moment. Also I see some short-sellers building positions. I can also understand if people take profit after still a strong YTD Performance of +26% vs. S&P 500 -20% and German DAX in similar regions. So sell the outperformer.

Fundamentally I am obviously of different opinion. Aixtron remains in excellent shape. Strong orders, sales, new equipment with higher price per machine, so driving better margins. FX a massive tailwinds here at 1.00 vs. 1.20 budget rate!

But, look at the sector: US Semi Index SOX -13% since beginning of June, ASML the same over that period, Micron with weaker revenue guidance, Apple reducing some hiring and reducing spending, Infineon -20% since early June. Aixtron on the other hand only -8% (until 2 days ago) since beginning of June. So the stock is following the other names here I believe.

The market (generalist investors) are worried that we are/have overbuilt in Semi Capex and it doesnt differentiate by application. Stupid. Obviously Aixtron is not hit given SIC/GAN/Micro LED etc. But for us, that is great! It provides great re-entry points.. big technical support (200d MA) at € 20.

Lets see where the down move ends, but we as specialists know that results will be good, balance sheet is strong and Management conservative/reliable.

Q2 results on 28.07...

have a nice summer all!
19.07.22 10:46 #1332 CWL and fel

many thanks for sharing your informations with us.

Und ja, fel du schreibst:

The market (generalist investors) are worried that we are/have overbuilt in Semi Capex and it doesnt differentiate by application. Stupid. Obviously Aixtron is not hit given SIC/GAN/Micro LED etc. But for us, that is great! It provides great re-entry points.. big technical support (200d MA) at € 20.

Das sehe ich exakt genau so. und bleibe - infogedessen - vollumfänglich investiert.

Und auch hier schliessse ich mich vorbehaltlos an: 

have a nice summer all! or bon été à tous

à bientôt


19.07.22 16:59 #1333 ASM Int. buys LPE
This potentially could lead to a stronger SiC EPI equipment competitor:  
21.07.22 16:07 #1335 Q2 and beyond
On May 5 when Aixtron reported Q1 sales of "only" 88.6 m the stock tanked about 8%.  Some investors seemed to be surprised by the number when estimates of ~85m had been well telegraphed before that day.

That Aixtron would have Q2 sales of "ONLY" 94.5m caused the stock to tank 5% Monday.  Some investors worried about the Deja Vu of Q1 earnings and got out.

The latest sale estimates by the analysts are 129M for Q3, 182M for Q4 and 124M for Q1/23.  The Q4 sales number implies Q2 orders of 135m.  The Q1/23 sales of 124m indicates a strong Q3 order of 148m.  If so, Aixtron would up its 2022 order guidance.  

I think the stock has priced in the modest Q2 94m sales and is beginning to reflect a stronger H2.  
26.07.22 21:25 #1336 WIN Semiconductors
warned about its Q3 earnings and cut 2022 capital expenditure from 400m to 267m yesterday.  This partly explains the weakness today.  
28.07.22 11:20 #1337 Aixtron: strong order intake

A few comments.

Order backlog €315 Million of which 30% are in USD valued at 1,20. Potentrial upside on 1/3 of the backlog approx. €20 Million.

Shipping forecast againt this back-log €150 Million which leaves €165 M for 2023.

First volume order for MicroLED received.

Check out the IR Presentation for details.

laugthingcool baggo-mh

28.07.22 11:37 #1338 Yes baggo....

Vor allem die Micro-LED Story steht ja erst am Anfang. Da sit noch einiges an Potnzial vorhanden. In diesem boot bleibe ich noch lange sitzen...

Wie war das noch bei Felix: The best......



28.07.22 16:27 #1339 CC zum Q2 Ergebnis 28.07.2022

CC zum Q2 Ergebnis 28.07.2022

These are my personal notes from the call today.

 - Q3 will be larger than Q2
 - Q4 will be larger than Q3
spares & parts to be around 20ish % of total
36% of the revenue is invoiced in USD

Felix sees continuous strong momentum

Sales in Q2 by application by contribution

1.) red LED
2.) SiC
3.) Datacom Laser

4.) MicroLED (shipments are for trial and R&D tools) 10-20% of total

Price increases

Have been have been announced and are part of the order back-log. They become effective for all orders placed after the announcement.

Lead Time
Therefore the high inventory levels

GaN Power
Fast chargers replacing Si in chargers and have already a very, very high market share high
Data Centers
white goods (refrigerators etc)
most Laptops still  shipped with regulars GaN charges

SiC Power
Tool is fully automated (Batch production of 6 or 8’ wafers) and 4 to 5 times more productive in terms of wafer output) than the tool of LPE.
LPE was acquired by ASM and there is an estimate for 100 Million sales of SiC tools in 2023. Aixtron does not want to comment on that number, but if would mean a huge ramp of one of the LPE customers. LPE is mostly China turnover, single wafer tool and much less automated (semi-automated according to Felix)           
China is building their own SiC supply chain. Local SiC wafer production, local SiC Epi tools, local MOFEST production.    

Order received is for red, green, and blue MicroLED systems and comprises of 2 handful of systems.

Shipment towards the end of the year 2022 and further orders for the ramp expected in H2/22 and H1/23.

Felix made one statement which gave it away: “Depending on when we record the order”. For me that means Aixtron already knows the size of the ramp-order but has yet to add it to the order back-log. That would indicate further good news in the coming months.

2023 and 2024 the majority of the orders are expected to come from MicroLED as other customers are still in the qualification stage.

All in all a very convincing telecon.

laugthingcool baggo-mh

29.07.22 14:28 #1340 DZ-Bank

Aus meinem Blickwinkel: Völliger Schwachsinn!

Zur Info (stolen from baggo):

 - Q3 will be larger than Q2
 - Q4 will be larger than Q3
spares & parts to be around 20ish % of total
36% of the revenue is invoiced in USD

un bon week-end


01.08.22 15:42 #1342 HSCEL

Apple with a patent registration in July.
HSCEL: horizontal instead of vertical Laser, a combination of VCSEL and EEL

Wer nutzt u.a. Aixtron reactors to produce VCSEL parts?
II-VI Inc.
If Apple will use this in future releases other manufacturrers will follow.

laugthingcool baggo-mh

18.08.22 00:24 #1343 Wolfspeed Reported

Listening to the CC.  Very bullish in the CC.  The SiC ramp is much more rapidly than anticipated.  Even the non automotive applications are accelerating.  The recent silicon semiconductor slowdown does not affect Wolfspeed at all.

The ~$50B US chip act signed last week includes subsidy money for SiC and the CEO was there at the White House.  Wolfspeed plans to tap into that subsidy for new fabs and is also planning the expansion of its existing fabs capacity right now.  
18.08.22 11:02 #1344 I had the same idea ;-) different source

from the CC yesterday.

"Since the opening, we've continued to run initial lots through the fab and remain on track to complete initial qualifications and ship products by the end of this fiscal year. We've also had several large customers visit the site prior to signing agreements with us, which is translating into stronger demand than we originally anticipated.

As a result, [b]we now have initiated work to tool out the remaining portion of the fab.[/b] We are also expanding the materials capacity to support the increased production planned in Mohawk Valley. We believe this is the best course of action to stay ahead of what we see as a steepening demand for silicon carbide."

"If you look across the market for silicon carbide, you see that market expanding and you also see the industry overall need more capacity. And certainly, we're going to need to participate in that. So when you look at that increase in capacity, [b]including we talked about potentially an additional fab after Mohawk Valley[/b], we talked about more materials -- a second materials facility that we might need as well,......."

So here we go. Aixtrons biggest SiC customer is talking about expansion of teh existing Mohawk fab and plans under discussion to build another one.

Just for info: materials means SiC wafer prodution which has nothing to do with Aixtron.

laugthingcool baggo-mh

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